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Predictive Analytics for Extreme Events in Big Data

机译:大数据中极端事件的预测分析

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This paper presents an efficient computational methodology for longitudinal and cross-sectional analysis of extreme event statistics in large data sets. The analyzed data are available across multiple time periods and multiple individuals in a population. Some of the periods and individuals might have no extreme events and some might have much data. The extreme events are modeled with a Pareto or exponential tail distribution. The proposed approach to longitudinal and cross-sectional analysis of the tail models is based on non-parametric Bayesian formulation. The maximum a posteriori probability problem leads to two convex problems for the tail parameters. Solving one problem yields the trends for the tail decay rate across the population and time periods. Solving another gives the trends of the tail quintile level. The approach is illustrated by providing analysis of 10-and 100-year extreme event risks for extreme climate events and for peak power loads in electrical utility data.
机译:本文为大型数据集中的极端事件统计数据的纵向和横截面分析提供了一种有效的计算方法。分析的数据可在多个时间段内以及一个人口中的多个个人使用。有些时期和个人可能没有极端事件,有些则可能有很多数据。极端事件使用帕累托或指数尾分布进行建模。尾部模型的纵向和横截面分析的拟议方法基于非参数贝叶斯公式。最大后验概率问题导致了尾部参数的两个凸问题。解决一个问题将得出整个种群和时间段的尾巴衰减率趋势。解决另一个问题将得出尾部五分位数水平的趋势。通过对极端气候事件和电力公用事业数据中的峰值功率负载的10年和100年极端事件风险进行分析来说明该方法。

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