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Reasoning-Building Process for Transportation Project Evaluation and Decision-Making: Use of Reasoning Map and Evidence Theory

机译:运输项目评估和决策的推理构建过程:推理图和证据理论的使用

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Policy-makers of today’s transportation investment projects engage in dialogues and debates inwhich the reasonableness and clarity are of great value. In the traditional transportation systemsplanning practices, different stakeholders reason and provide evidence in support of theirpreferences, but these opinions are often conflicting and rarely consistent. This paper presents adecision-aiding approach for finding a transportation alternative that best achieves the project’sgoals and also indicate the level of satisfaction of different stakeholders. The proposed approachapplies (i) a reasoning map to structure how experts and citizens perceive the alternatives forachieving the project’s goals, and provides (ii) belief measures in evidence theory to what extentthe alternatives achieve the goals of different stakeholders. This method gives three kinds ofresults. First, the degrees of goal achievement can be calculated for different stakeholders.Second, the integrity of the reasoning and the quality of information are both evaluated based onmeasures of uncertainty associated with this information. Finally, the critical reasoning linksthat matter most significantly to goal achievement can be identified by means of sensitivityanalysis. The paper applies the proposed method to evaluate a Streetcar alternative against BusRapid Transit alternative in a real-world transit alternatives analysis. The reasoning-buildingprocess provides means for the planners and citizens to present their own logic and justifications.This promotes focused discourse among different stakeholders and enriches the quality of theplanning and decision-making process.
机译:当今交通投资项目的决策者们在此进行对话和辩论。 合理性和清晰度非常重要。在传统运输系统中 规划实践中,不同的利益相关者进行推理并提供支持他们的证据 偏好,但是这些观点经常是矛盾的,并且很少是一致的。本文提出了一个 决策辅助方法,以找到最能实现项目目标的运输替代方案 目标,并指出不同利益相关者的满意度。拟议的方法 应用(i)推理图来构建专家和公民如何看待替代方案 实现项目目标,并提供(ii)证据理论中的信念量度 替代方案可以实现不同利益相关者的目标。这种方法给出了三种 结果。首先,可以为不同的利益相关者计算目标实现的程度。 其次,基于以下因素评估推理的完整性和信息质量 与此信息相关的不确定性的度量。最后,关键推理环节 可以通过敏感性来确定对目标实现最重要的问题 分析。本文将所提出的方法用于评估针对公共汽车的有轨电车替代方案 现实世界中的快速公交替代方案分析中的快速公交替代方案。推理建设 过程为计划者和市民提供了表达自己的逻辑和理由的手段。 这促进了不同利益相关者之间的集中讨论,并提高了利益相关者的质量。 规划和决策过程。

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