Re-verifying an Activity-Based Microsimulation of Travel Demand in a Period of Transition in Transportation Environment in Jakarta, Indonesia

摘要

Following the analysis of the household auto/motorcycle ownership and joint mode and destination choice models that were presented in the previous years, this paper presents the results of re-verification of an activity-based microsimulation of travel demand for the Jakarta Metropolitan Area that was developed based on the 2002 surveys. Comprehensive household and household member data from large-scale Commuter Travel Survey in 2010 were used as inputs to the microsimulation. This paper first presented the overall microsimulation processes and model validation, along with several activity scheduling decision rules and intra-household interaction rules including joint tour/activity generation and household maintenance tour allocation. For model re-verification, the microsimulation outcomes of the new base year 2010 are investigated both internally and externally. The internal investigation involves comparison with the detailed activity-related data from Person Tracking Survey, which was able to catch all the trips made by the respondents carrying a GPS logger. The external investigation involves comparison with the observed traffic counts surveyed on two major screen lines in the region. The paper also discusses the results and secondary or emerging effects and trends caused in the changing transportation environment. Overall, the activity-based microsimulation model that was developed based on the 2002 surveys provides only limited accurate travel estimates. Thus, the authors’ further effort includes re-establishment of comprehensive activity-based models based on the latest, abundant, and accurate travel data source to make a powerful, practical decision-making tool that can be used for policy applications not only in Jakarta but also in other metropolitan regions.