An activity-based microsimulation model of travel demand for transportation policy and impact analysis.

摘要

Traditionally, to estimate travel patterns, congestion, and vehicle emissions, a four-step travel demand method has been used to estimate traffic volume in each link of the transportation network. However, it has many limitations due to its trip-based sequential structure and lack of behavioral responses. As an alternative method to replace the four-step travel demand method, an activity-based microsimulation model provides improved capabilities to predict choice of when to travel by exact time of day, rather than for 24-hour or morning/afternoon peak periods by individually simulating the behavior of each person in a representative sample.; In this thesis, a comprehensive multi-tier activity-based modeling system is developed in the context of developing countries. The case study is Jakarta, Indonesia, which is one of the largest metropolitan areas in Asia. The modeling system primarily adopts a tour-based structure in which the tour is used as the unit of modeling travel instead of the trip.{09}It is a system of random utility based disaggregate and fully connected logit and nested logit models, which assumes a hierarchy of the model components. The model is then utilized within a microsimulation framework for model validation and policy analysis. Activity scheduling decision rules are applied in simulation process to adjust the times of simulated daily activity patterns. Intra-household interaction rules are also applied including joint tour/activity generation and household maintenance tour allocation.; The microsimulation outcomes of the base year are validated both internally by comparison with the activity diary survey and household travel survey data based on which the models were developed and externally by comparison with the observed roadside traffic counts on two major screen lines. The research also examines the results of the application of microsimulation model to evaluate future transportation policy scenarios including several area pricing schemes. Direct and secondary results of the policy analyses simulations are discussed including emission estimates as well as emerging effects caused by each policy scenario. Overall, it became clear that the activity-based microsimulation model presented in this study provides accurate travel estimates which are expected to serve as better inputs for evaluation of different transportation policy scenarios.