Assessing the Impact of Transportation Policies on Fuel Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Using a Household Vehicle Fleet Simulator

摘要

The carbon footprint of personal travel is dependent on the composition of the vehicle fleet andthe extent to which vehicles of different types are utilized. Transportation model systems havepreviously not explicitly incorporated the ability to forecast vehicle fleet composition andutilization patterns of households in a region. This paper describes the application of acomprehensive vehicle fleet composition and evolution model system that is capable of taking abase year vehicle fleet and evolving it over time in annual time steps through the events ofvehicle disposal, replacement, and acquisition. The model system is sensitive to a host of socioeconomic,demographic, built environment, and vehicle technology and price variables, makingit ideally suited for such an application. Coupled with a demographic forecasting model systemthat evolves the population over time, the vehicle evolution simulator is able to predict changesin vehicle fleet composition, miles of travel, fuel consumption, and greenhouse gas emissionsunder a wide range of scenarios. Based on the findings from the study, it appears that futuretechnological innovations (increase of driving range, for example) and pricing levels (doublingof gas cost) will have greater impacts on vehicle fleet composition, utilization, energyconsumption, and greenhouse gas emissions than more incentive based approaches such as freeHOV lane access for alternative fuel vehicles.