Consumer Response to Service I nterruption on the Washington Metro

摘要

This study estimates lost ridership resulting from the June, 2009 accident on the Washington Metro. Amodel of ridership is estimated using data up to the time of the accident, and forecasts are used to predictwhat ridership otherwise would have been on the affected Red Line. The analysis suggests that nearly onemillion rides were lost cumulatively, with a loss period that extends into early September. However,accounting for substitution to other Metro lines reduces the estimated net ridership loss substantially.Station level analysis suggests an even lower level of ridership losses, but is likely a less precise andreliable estimate due to intra-line shifts and higher ridership volatility. The framework also providesinsight into the station-level impacts of minor interruptions.