Searching for arriving on-time tolerance - New Swiss data for travel time reliability analysis

摘要

Travel time, as one of the key factors that influence travel decisions, plays an important role intransport planning. More and more studies find out that not only travel time itself, but also traveltime reliability can aect travel decisions, and sometimes the latter is valued more. In this papera modified schedule model is used to explore travel time reliability influences travelers’ choices.Normally every trip has an ideal arrival time known as preferred arrival time (PAT), but it isalso well accepted that travelers’ regarded a certain buer time around the PAT as arriving ontime. Based on this, we focus on searching for travelers’ on-time tolerances around PAT whileapplying the schedule model to explain value of travel time savings (VTTS) and the value oftravel time reliability (VoR). In order to do this, a specially designed stated preference surveywas distributed to collect data in Switzerland. The travel time attributes in the survey follow alog normal distribution, and because of this, the expected earliness, lateness and on-time valueswith early and late buers can be calculated. Then a theoretical analysis for the expected on-timeas well as expected earliness and lateness is discussed, followed by a exhaustive search for theon-time tolerance of the respondents. The model estimate shows that VTTS is more or less sameas similar Swiss studies while the VoRs show relatively higher values compared to the othersurveys.