Effects of Changes in Road Networks Characteristics on Road Casualties: An Application of Full Bayes Models Using Panel Data

摘要

In order to ensure a high level of road safety, the road network planning needs to bebased on the best knowledge available of the effects of the road design on road safety. In thisstudy, we look into how changes in road network characteristics affect road casualties. Weapply a widely used approach for before-after evaluation studies, the Bayesian method. Wealso use a panel semi-parametric model to estimate the dose-response function for continuoustreatment variables. The result suggests that there are more casualties in the area with a betterconnectivity and accessibility, where more attention should be paid to the safetycountermeasures.