Evaluating the Potential of Transportation-Related Social Exclusion of Elderly People: An Application of a Joint Mode Choice and Travel Distance Demand Model in the National Capital Region (NCR) of Canada

摘要

This paper uses a utility-theoretic econometric model to investigate the joint mode choice andtravel distance of elderly people (age 65+). The main objective is to investigate the possibilityand extent of transportation-related social exclusion of elderly people. Empirical models areestimated by using a household travel survey conducted in the National Capital Region (NCR) ofCanada. Modal accessibility is considered as a determinant of travel distance. The spatialexpansions method is used to capture spatial dispersion and disparity of elderly people fordifferent activity types. Multi-variable interactions are used to capture systematic variations oftotal distance travel demand across age groups for different activity types. Empirical modelreveals that elderly people living in the NCR are prone to transportation-related social exclusion.It is evident that the effects of poor accessibility and unfavourable land use patterns are not thesame across the region. The NCR is proven to be a monocentric and central business district(CBD) oriented region. Elderly people living far from the CBD need to travel longer distancesthat further increase with age. With an increasingly elderly population in the region, the risk oftransportation-related social exclusion also increases. Most importantly, transportation-relatedsocial exclusion in the NCR is driven more by the region’s urban form and land use patterns thanthe performance of the regional transportation system.