Capturing Renewable Resource Dynamics in Top-Down Energy Models: A Hybrid Method Applied to Oshore Wind in China

摘要

Top-down modeling approaches are often criticized based on limited ability to represent detailedtechnological information. We extend a hybrid method for representing heterogeneity in the qualityof resource inputs when modeling energy production, focusing on China’s offshore wind electricityas an example. Using a stylized top-down economic model, we compare the supply curvederived from policy simulations in our general equilibrium approach to a static supply curve andshow that predictions of electricity supplied dier systematically. We further show how the hybridmodel predicts a “wind rush” phenomenon as a carbon price applied across the economy rises,the piecewise shape of the supply curve dictates that large quantities of wind capacity will bedeployed upon reaching threshold electricity prices. This effect is typically not captured by traditionaltop-down models, which typically rely on smooth curve fits for resource representation.Finally, we show how to introduce a piecewise supply curve based on observed wind resource datainto a top-down economic model that includes many heterogeneous resource prices and multiplesectors. The results suggest that planning and policy measures are necessary to coordinate the paceof renewables deployment with infrastructure and grid network expansion to avoid congestion andcurtailment.