Modelling pump functionality with a Markov process: insights and implications from Malawi

摘要

This paper uses recent data on water point functionality from Salima District, Malawi, to predict theexpected pump functionality rates using a model known as a Markov process. If the model fits, as thefindings suggest, the implication for infrastructure sustainability is that long-term pump functionalityrates will only improve if there is an increase in the probability that pumps will be repaired. Examplesfrom Malawi, notably from Nkhotakota District, suggest possible methods for improving this probabilityof pump repairs through strengthening local stakeholder relationships, which may hold greater potentialfor improving infrastructure sustainability than the temporary benefits typified by direct projectinterventions.