Baby Wipe Lotion Exposure: A Probabilistic Modeling Approach

摘要

Fundamentally unique aspects of childhood exposures to chemicals, such as those associated with diapering, lead to the need for specific exposure data for safety assessments. Due to the challenges of measuring baby wipes lotion exposure, we used three types of data to develop a comprehensive probabilistic model of exposure: data on the number of baby wipes used/day, data on amount of lotion transferred by each wipe, and publicly available US NHANES data on the population distribution of body weight as a function of age. Separate models of each of these three types of data were then combined, in a Monte Carlo analysis, to characterize both the median amount of lotion transferred (mg/kg/day), and percentiles of the distribution around the median, as a function of age. This was done separately for each of the geographies in which wipes usage studies have been conducted by P&G: US, Germany, UK. Overall, these models predict a reduction in lotion transfer with increasing age, driven by a declining number of wipes used/day and an increase in body weight as the children grow. The 50th, 90th, and 95th percentiles of average daily lotion transfer for females for the three countries were as follows: US -160, 290, 330 mg/kg/day; Germany -180, 300, 340 mg/kg/day; and UK -190, 320, 360 mg/kg/day. For Germany and US males the ranges were similar. A slightly higher number of wipes was used by the UK boys leading to higher lotion transfer than other country/gender combinations, which were all fairly similar. The effect of child's gender and significance of this is unclear. This poster will provide a breakdown of age and gender specific values for lotion exposure. This model can be used for future assessments of exposure to baby wipe ingredients.