Effect of Improving Air Quality in Seoul Metropolitan Area in 2024 By Health Risk Analysis

摘要

Background & Aims: The Government had devised legislation of Special Act and drew up guidelines for improving air quality in Seoul Metropolitan area. 2nd plan for improving air quality in a metropolitan area will be enforced from 2015 to 2024 . During 2nd plan, health risk analysis will be carried out to make sure that air quality has been improved to protect people's health. Method: This study followed comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology developed by EPA and the World Heath Organization (WHO). Annual mean concentrations of particulate matter (PM) with diameters less than 10 μm (PM10) and PM with diameters less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) are assessed from monitoring network data, CMAQ, and geographic information system(GIS). Population-attributable fractions using risk coefficients presented in EPA, WHO, and Korean study were calculated and applied to revised estimates of deaths and morbidities for Seoul metropolitan area in 2024. Conclusions: If target goal for air quality is achieved in 2024, excess death will be decreased from 19,958 cases to 4,963 cases. (-75.2%). Hospitalization for respiratory disease will be decreased from 4,714 to 1,276 (-73.0%). Chronic bronchitis will be decreased from 6,743 cases to 1,799 cases (-73.4%). Acute bronchitis will be decreased from 804,373 cases to 387,751 cases (-52.8%) for Seoul metropolitan area in 2024. Recommendation: Air quality management will be based on health risk Assessment. Health risk assessment of ambient air should be performed every 3 years at each city.