LESSONS LEARNED AND IMPLICATIONS OF THE FUKUSHIMA NPP ACCIDENTS

摘要

The global nuclear 'enterprise' is now 3-Vi years (March 11, 2011) beyond the historic Tohoku earthquake (M9.0), subsequent tsunami (～14-15m waves), and unfortunately, the continuing consequences of the 'Fukushima nuclear power plant (NPP) accident. We now live in the post-Fukushima nuclear era. First let us pay our respects to this tragic loss-of-life (-16,000 fatalities) as a result of the earthquake and tsunami; also 10-years earlier in 2004, centered further south in the Indian Ocean (230,000+ fatalities). The movie, "The Impossible", was a reminder that indeed, energy provides sustenance and socio-economic development for humankind. Energy will determine the state of Asia-Pacific (AP) in years to come. Over the past 15-years, AP has clearly had increasing means to lead global economic growth, relative to stagnating economies of scale in Europe and U.S. AP also has both existing and emerging larger-scale industrial ambitions and capital to construct new nuclear power plants (NPPs). China has some 25-28 units under construction at 11 sites; the near-term goal is to establish 40GW of generating capacity by 2020 and to reach some 70-75GW approximately 10 years later. Although some investments are also being made in renewable energy, the demand for capacity clearly dictates further growth in nuclear power. However, unless high expectations for safety, safety culture are concurrently encouraged, we may face the next nuclear accident again in Asia. This work looks at the technical and non-technical lessons learned from the Fukushima Daiichi accident and the implications that we cannot afford to ignore.