Exploring influential factors on transition process of vehicle ownership in developing Asian City, A case study in Bogor City Indonesia

摘要

Motorization has increased sharply forced by economic growth couple with poor public transport services especially at urban areas in Asian cities. A transition process to a private vehicle dependent society could be found in many cities because local authority doesn't have appropriate planning to anticipate it while earlier studies also clearly identified that some countries has already finish the transition process from of the vehicle ownership such as Japan and Korea. This paper aims to analyze influential factors on transition phenomena of vehicle ownership by applying ordered logit model which consider socio-economic and geographical aspects. The empirical case study was conducted based on face to face interview survey in 2015 of 600 household in Bogor city Indonesia. The transition process of vehicle ownership could be obtained from aggregate data that show several type of ownership such as non-vehicle owner, single motorcycle, multiple motorcycle and multiple vehicle or combination of private car and motorcycle. The estimation was calculated by econometric software LIMDEP. It shows a robust and reliable estimation result. We found a clear and significant transition process which shown as estimated coefficient for different group of vehicle owner. The ordered logit model also be able to explore influential factors on vehicle ownership. First, household income and home ownership give positive influence on vehicle ownership. In contrast, age; education level; family size and residential location give negative influence on vehicle ownership. Household living in central business area did not indicate an interest in owning a private vehicle. The study also found a rapid growth of household income within last 10 years which may increase vehicle population and change its composition in next near future in Bogor city. Local policy makers should therefore aware on this situation and prepare appropriate action to control vehicle population and its use. The revitalization of central business district and its public transport system could play significant role to control vehicle ownership in Bogor city.