A travel time prediction model for freeway with considering interchange disturbances

摘要

The traffic flow near around the interchange is disturbed due to frequent lane change behaviors, and the average moving speed in the range of intersections are 11% slower than the sections between intersections. In this work, a freeway travel time prediction method with considering the interchange disturbance is proposed, and two data sources including VD and GVP data are collected and analyzed to verify the proposed model. The experiment result shows that the models with considering the interchange disturbance has the better accuracy as well as stability than the traditional travel time prediction models. The proposed model enhances the accuracy from 73.08% to 82.31% in VD case, and from 89.25% to 92.31% in GVP case.