The use of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) within national airspace persists as a controversial issue within the United States, with much of the attention concerning privacy. However, methods to quantify and assess the possible risks associated with operation over populated areas remains as a serious obstacle. This paper presents a method of estimating the risk of operating UAS in a variety of capacities, including law enforcement, research, and commercial applications. It does so by estimating the number of casualties and property damage costs using simple probability factors for air to air and ground collisions of aircraft This risk estimation method was developed with the goal of developing possible constraints, as well as guide certification standards toward safe and responsible operation of UAS in the future.
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