Performance Evaluation of Arrival Time Prediction Models

摘要

Arrival time information is a crucial component of advanced public transport systems (APTS). The dissemination of arrival time at bus stops can help reduce the waiting time and anxiety of passengers, and improve the quality of service. In this research, an experiment was conducted to compare the performance on prediction accuracy between the link-based and the path-based historical travel time model with the automatic vehicle location (AVL) data collected from an actual bus route. The research results show that the path-based model is superior to the link-based model, and achieves the best improvements during peak hours.