Canines Rabies Epidemic and Control Simulator

摘要

Rabies, a fatal and infectious disease, is still endemic in all regions of Thailand. Domestic dogs are the most common reservoir of the virus. In a practical routine, it has a measure to control a disease with a mass vaccination, but operation is not effective due to the large area of operation protocol and difficulty in tracking an infected dog. In order to make a tool to help tracking an epidemic area, this paper presents the implementation of rabies epidemic simulation. The world generation and spatial data are generated from Mapbox SDK in Unity engine. Dog behavior and homerange are determined from a normal distribution and kernel density estimation method. Rabies infected dogs are modeled in SEIR model and their behavior is determined from a normal distribution combined with a factor probability value calculated from the incline and home position. The result shows that the coverage area of epidemic can cover other reported cases with a shorter radius than a vaccination protocol but giving a high RO result due to the dog group sample and unpredictable repeat bite of infected dog.