Making Potential Maps of Population Dynamics with Considering the Local Characteristics: For Designing Compact City Scenario

摘要

Recently, the population of Japan is decreasing, and this trend is remarkable in rural areas and provincial cities.For designing future regional land use scenario, estimating the spatial distribution of the population will be needed.However, spatial distribution of population decline depends on the local characteristics.Therefore, the purpose of this study is finding the structure of population dynamics and understanding the area where have high potential of the population increase or decrease in Hiroshima Prefecture.This study is performed by the following steps.1) Mapping the population dynamics (from 2000 to 2010) by using the census data mesh (500m rectangles).2) Analyzing the relationship between the population dynamics and its factors by using statistical methods.3) Mapping the potential of population dynamics.Major findings of this study are as follows.a) Whole population of Hiroshima Prefecture is not so changed, but remarkable population decline and growth can be seen in some places.b) The structure of population dynamics is found by using decision tree.c) The meshes that have the potential of "increase" are distributed in the central city area, and the meshes that have the potential of "decrease" are distributed in penumbra of the city area.