Analysis of Political and Trade Decisions in International Gas Markets: A Model-Based Systems Engineering Framework

摘要

By taking a model-based systems engineering (MBSE) approach, a framework can be developed for long-term exploration of a complex adaptive system in multiple contexts. The framework uses MBSE tools to define the complex system architecture and modern internet state transfer and structured data format standards to integrate natural language descriptions, datasets, and models. These can constitute a knowledge architecture that can be used as a long-term research tool. The long-term goal is a framework that captures conceptual models of the complex system, data sets and relationships, dynamic models and simulations, and decision analytics within a common environment. This paper presents a scenario in which we evaluate links between transformations of complex natural gas systems and analyze political intervention into the Russian-European natural gas markets. In this example, we specifically examine geographical, physical (cross-border infrastructure), and commercial value streams through the prism of network analyses. This is one context of a more general model of international gas relationships and flows at multiple levels. The resulting framework provides insight into dynamic behaviors at multiple levels of the system, such as the emergence of infrastructure network and intricate relationships of strong corporate ties and knowledge networks, along with possible strategies for political and economic intervention. The primary goal of an MBSE approach is to capture interrelationships in the complex system at varying levels of abstraction, which enables a common reference for diverse models and datasets.