Development of a Generalization Bass Diffusion Model for Chinese Electric Vehicles Considering Charging Stations

摘要

Electric vehicles, as a kind of new energy vehicle, present fast growing trend in recent years along with development bottlenecks, such as inconvenient charging service. In order to improve the service ability of charging for vehicles, we develop the Generalized Bass Diffusion Model using Chinese EVs sales volume and the number of charging stations from 2010 to 2016 to explore the interaction between the EVs sales and the charging stations. Based on the diffusion model, the main contribution of our research is that we find that the higher construction level of charging stations can promote the market diffusion of EVs in the initial and developing stages and then the promotion reduces, which can guide us to reduce the construction level and try to improve the charging service level or take other measures at some point to ensure the steady growth of EVs market and realize the maximization of social value and economic value. What's more, we forecast the EVs sales volume using the diffusion model, and the results can guide the government and enterprises to carry out reasonable short-term and long-term planning efficiently and precisely.