BENEFITS AND COSTS OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES FOR THE PUBLIC FINANCES: INTEGRATED VALUATION MODEL AND APPLICATION TO FRANCE

摘要

The upcoming launch of electric vehicles has financial impact on the public budget of a given country.Replacing a combustion engine vehicle by an electric vehicle entails fiscal effects not only due toannounced supportive policy measures but also due to industrial factors that reflect changes in themanufacturing of a vehicle and in the provision of products and services throughout the vehicle'soperating life.Existing financial analyses have so far either only focused on the 'obvious', direct financial impactsresulting from policy measures, or have taken a socio-economic welfare approach incorporatingenvironmental costs and benefits. Industrial factors have, to our knowledge, been left aside so far.This study delivers an exhaustive economic analysis taking all direct and indirect financial impacts ofthe introduction of electric vehicles on the public budget into account. Direct impacts refer to financialtransfers due to subsidies and tax breaks. Indirect impacts refer to industrial factors which entailimplications for ⅰ) the employment situation and therefore for salaries, social contributions byemployers and employees and unemployment benefits and ⅱ) tax revenues on the consumption side(VAT) and the production side.The valuation method is based on an input-output model of the productive economy, combined withmechanisms of fiscal and social transfer. The methodology is applied to France. Scenarios that varyassumptions on whether vehicle manufacturing and usage is taking place in- or outside the country aredeveloped and analysed by their fiscal impact on the public budget.