How to forecast cruise ship arrivals for a new port of call destination

摘要

Over the recent years, the cruise industry has experienced significant growth,becoming one of the most dynamic segments in the transportation and tourism sector.Research on the cruise industry is mainly market oriented, focusing on operations andrevenue optimization management, while ports are mainly addressed in the context ofthe revenues generated by a cruise ship visit. Nevertheless, recent trends are in favorof new and diversified itineraries and, thus, several unvisited ports are seekingopportunities to penetrate the cruise market and become new destinations. In light ofthe above, the paper proposes a methodology for estimating the number of cruise shipvisits that could potentially be attracted to a port, aiming at becoming a destination toexisting cruise line connections within the wider geographical area served. Theproposed methodological framework estimates the "cruise attractiveness index", as ameasure of the cruise port's attractiveness in becoming a port of call, andsubsequently identifies three alternative scenarios, under which the specific port couldbe integrated in the cruise line network. The end result is a forecast of the futurecruise ship arrivals for the port of interest. An application is carried out for theAdriatic-Ionian seas of the Mediterranean region, one of the major cruise destinationsin the world. The proposed methodology could be a valuable decision-making tool forboth the cruise industry in terms of expanding its destinations, as well as for portauthorities and other local agents aiming at attracting tourism capital.