Are changed living arrangements influencing youth driver license decline?

摘要

In the last decade young people in North America, Australia and much of Europe are becoming less likelyto hold a drivers license and, if they can drive, they are driving less. This is a remarkable trend which isnot yet well understood. This paper is an empirical analysis exploring how changes in youth livingarrangements, notably living with parents and postponement of child-rearing, influence youth driverlicensing.A binary logistic regression model of travel survey data (1994 to 2009) for Melbourne, Australia isused to explore these issues. The model established that living arrangements were not significant predictorsof licensing rates for 18 to 23 year olds, suggesting that in this age group living with parents or havingchildren was less important than access to a household car, gender, age and employment status.However among 24-30 year olds living with parents was associated with reduced licensing. Some30% of this age group lived with parents and this has been trending upwards in Australian and internationaldata. In addition, 24-30 year olds living independently with children are more likely to have a driverlicense. Between 14% and 21% of this age group lived independently with children and trend data showsthis is in decline. Together it is theorised that these changes in living arrangements may be influential inoverall licensing decline rates.The paper considers implications of findings for policy and opportunities for future research.