THE ROAD TO PRIVATIZATION OF SPACE EXPLORATION: WHAT IS MISSING?

摘要

The space sector scenario is experiencing a great transformation in recent years led by multiple intertwined agents (political, military, scientific, and commercial), evidencing the unfolding of a new space race. The understanding of the role of these agents and its interactions will help to elucidate this evolution and to explore future scenarios. This paper aims to contribute with the analysis of one of these agents: private space companies. The humanity may soon testify a new road to space exploration, not made by billionaire's space agencies like NASA, ESA and Roscosmos, but by small private companies, most of them located in the USA. The space sector faces a swarm of new investors entering specially in the branch of space launchers, human spaceflight, space tourism, space services and equipment, surface exploration of the Moon and Mars, and Asteroids mining. These emerging companies, after a 60 years-old paradigm dominated by state-led space agencies, can set a mark in space technology development via searching for cheaper, faster and easier access to space. This research gathered information from 105 private companies and through the application of forecasting tools it is demonstrated the burgeoning of a natural growth process of space private enterprises. It also points out some crucial factors that are influencing this new growth phase, like NASA's Program reformulation, appearance of private investors in high risk investments, potential market for space tourism, alarm of limited resources, among other. Despite the increase of private investment, governments are still the major investors in space activities. There are still several critical issues to be solved, mainly regarding technology, law, policy and economy which, depending on how they will be solved by the space actors, will influence the forecasted scenario of privatization of space exploration.