Quantifying consumer rebound effects using a model of energy service demand.

摘要

A simple model of energy services demand is presented to re-assert the almostdirect equivalence between energy demand and energy services demand. Underreasonable assumptions it can be demonstrated that a system demand model ofenergy consumption offers substantial (albeit not quite complete) information re-garding energy services demand if (and only if) the technology process is explicitlydened. However such technology effects are empirically unobservable, a pointwhich has been the focus of numerous previous studies. Deterministic approx-imations to latent technology effects are useful 'frst-order' approximations, butgenerally fail to accurately capture even moderately complex latent dynamics. Inthis regard, a system demand model (of the linearized almost ideal demand systemtype) is estimated for UK data between 1970-2008 using a Kalman flter to obtainthe latent technology effects as an unobserved component. The results are generallysupportive of a non-trivial technology effect.