PROBABILISTIC PROPERTIES OF FORMULA FOR GLOBAL ICE PRESSURE IN THE CASE OF LOGNORMAL DISTRIBUTION OF ICE REGIME PARAMETERS

摘要

In the paper the probabilistic properties of formula for global ice pressure, which is provided by the code ISO 19906, are considered. Ice regime parameters are taken as random variables with lognormal distribution. The relation between moments of ice regime parameters and ice pressure quantiles are derived theoretically for introduced probabilistic model. The example of quantiles calculation is provided. The influence of ice regime parameters mutual correlation on the calculated ice pressure value is investigated. The influence of powers in the formula on the mean of resulting pressure is discussed and the theorem about mean minimum is formulated and proved.