Prediction on carbon emissions trend in Beijing Tianjing and Hebei Province

摘要

This paper employed the carbon dynamic model and IPCC cement model to estimate the amount of carbon emitted by energy and cement, and used CO2FIX model to predict the forest carbon sinks in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province from 2009 to 2050, then, this paper analyzed the influential factors and the contribution of forest carbon sinks to carbon emissions reduction. The main conclusions are as follows: taking forest carbon sinks into account, the carbon emissions of the three regions all show increase firstly, then, decrease, and the forest carbon sinks have no significant effect on carbon emissions reduction; the peak years of carbon emissions of Beijing and Tianjin are very close, which are 2029 and 2030 respectively, however, the peak year of Hebei Province is 2039; the forest carbon sinks is decreasing in Beijing and Tianjin, the opposite situation occurs in Hebei province as well.