The risk scenario analysis of typhoon gale in eastern coastal area of China

摘要

The gale disaster brought by the typhoon has affected the eastern coastal area of China greatly. That being so, the research on the distribution character of the on-shore gale caused by the typhoon is of great significance to guard against typhoon disasters. This article, based on 233 wind observation stations' wind speed data in eastern coastal area of China, extracted each station's annual maximum wind speed sequence, selected the Weibull and Pearson-III extreme value distribution models to fit the sequence, and used the Kolmogorov test method and the residual sum of squares to test the fitting effect. The Weibull distribution model was selected as the better distribution model when reflecting the disaster risk character of typhoon gales in eastern coastal area of China, then the extreme risk scenarios under 20, 50, and 100 year return periods were built to analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of the typhoon gale disaster risk. The results show that the southeastern coastal area totally has a comparatively high risk, and the coastal area of Zhejiang and Hainan, Leizhou Peninsula belong to the extreme risk regions in the study area, with the overall risk of the northern region being lower than the south in the study area, only part of Shandong Province has a slightly higher risk than the northern region. The typhoon gale risk scenario analysis method is based on extreme value distribution model established by this study has a certain significance to study the gale risk in eastern coastal area of China.