Escaping the Linearity Trap: Better Simulation Models for Management Support

摘要

This contribution aims to show a way towards better models for management support. We compare linear and nonlinear models in terms of their performance. Based on a case study, the respective benefits and shortcomings are fleshed out. A linear spreadsheet model and a nonlinear System Dynamics model are used to deal with one and the same issue: capacity planning in a large telecommunications company. Our analysis refers to both the qualities of the models and the process of model building in that firm. The necessity of nonlinear models, when dealing with complex dynamic issues, is substantiated, and strategies for the implementation of such models in organizations are outlined.