Modeling Pilots' Operation Error Based on Fitts' Law

摘要

Pilot error has long been a threat to aviation safety. Predicting pilot error can provide cockpit designers with useful information to reduce the possibility of pilot error and cost of training, improve the safety and performance of systems, and increase operator satisfaction. We present a theoretical model of pilot error based on review investigations of how effectively cockpit layout predict pilot error. The validity of the model was confirmed based on data collected from pilot operation experiments. Experiments were performed on five different operation tasks. Results showed that predicted values from the proposed model were highly correlated to actual error rates from the experiments. The findings indicate that the proposed error analysis model appears to be effective in the prediction of pilots' error over time. The model thus can be used to find out the potential safety problems of cockpit layout to improve the design of cockpit.