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Instability caused by the cubic potential in the foreign exchange market observed at the intervention by the Bank of Japan

机译:在日本银行的干预中观察到外汇市场中立方体潜力引起的不稳定

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摘要

It is widely known that market prices in the financial markets are approximated by random walks, however, in some special occasions we can find peculiar price motions. Here, we pay attention to the event of the largest intervention in the foreign exchange market, the US dollar-Japanese yen market, on October 31, 2011 and analyze the extraordinary time series of exchange rates by applying the new data analysis method based on the particle-filter version of the PUCK model. Through this data analysis we can detect deviation from the pure random walk quantitatively, and the functional form of underlying potential force is estimated accordingly. It is found that a nonlinear potential force, which causes a directional motion, appeared right after the start of the intervention.
机译:众所周知,金融市场的市场价格受到随机散步的近似,但在某些特殊场合,我们可以找到特殊的价格运动。在这里,我们注意到2011年10月31日的美国美元日元市场中最大的干预措施,并通过应用基于的新数据分析方法来分析非凡的汇率序列汇率PUCK模型的粒子过滤器版本。通过该数据分析,我们可以定量地检测与纯随机行走的偏差,并且相应地估计潜在力的功能形式。发现在干预开始之后,导致定向运动的非线性电位力出现在介入之后。

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