Modeling the economics of port resiliency

摘要

In the past decade, unexpected and often catastrophic events such as September 11th, Hurricanes Sandy, Katrina and Rita and the West Coast port lockout have had severe consequences on the national economy and supply chain network. Disruptive and destructive events also pose challenges to the U.S. military's deployment capabilities on the nation's commercial transportation infrastructure. Whether a disruption is intentional (e.g., terrorist attack, labor strike or lockout) or a natural disaster (e.g., hurricane or tsunami), an unanticipated slowdown or closure of a single node in the supply network can have a significant ripple effect on the efficiency and velocity of the domestic movement of goods and military cargo. The paper presents a modeling tool that can be used to evaluate the effects of these disruptions. The complex and dynamic nature of the supply network makes modeling methods essential to accurately evaluate alternative courses of action to secure resiliency benefits. It is also important to quantify the economic cost and benefits of the resiliency options in order to aide stakeholders to make accurate decisions for investments.