Agent-based Model of the German Heating Market: Simulations concerning the Use of Wood Pellets and the Sustainability of the Market

摘要

Heating and cooling for buildings and industry account for 50% of the annual energy consumption in the European Union. In this study, we analyze a heating market and its sustainability using five scenarios. Our use of a dynamic Multi-Agent-System provides some insights into market dynamics and consumer behavior. This agent-based model simulates the German heating and wood markets and considers both behavioral aspects and governmental regulations. The different market actors, such as private householders, foresters, sawmill operators and pellet producers, are represented by agents. The model is developed as a decision support system that applies not only to Germany, but to other countries and regions as well.