Modelling of world LNG market development: Focus on US investments and supplies

摘要

The US production of unconventional gas has grown drastically in recent years and is proved to be a case of success. In former years the US imported natural gas in order to meet their high demand and, therefore, invested in LNG import terminals. Since then, production of shale gas is considered to have a potential to change the world natural gas market, as both scientific community and policy makers started to discuss a transition of the US from a net importer to a net exporter country by the year 2020. This change requires new natural gas infrastructure, as regasification capacity which was already built will not be utilized and new liquefaction investments are expected instead. This paper estimates the perspective of US natural gas infrastructure using the MCP approach, and indicates that, rather than Europe or China, the young markets in Asia, supplied mostly by LNG, will be the targets of the US exports.