Study on impacts of population, consumption and technology on carbon emission in China (1990–2008) based on STIRPAT model

摘要

Based on extended STIRPAT model, this paper econometrically investigates the impacts on carbon emissions from population, consumption and technology in China by using the principal components regressive analysis method. Using urbanization rate as an index of the population structure, the empirical results of China' s carbon emission from 1990 to 2008 demonstrate that the influence on carbon emission produced by population structure change is higher than that brought by population scale growth at the present stage, and the technology factor plays limited role on carbon emission reduction. This is because although China has gained a certain achievement in the aspect of technology progress regarding the reduction of the intensity of carbon emission as the symbol, its carbon emission has not reached the peak owing to the restriction of the three inverted U shape curves rule in the carbon emissions process. The increase of Per capita annual consumption also brings the positive effect on the rise of carbon emission. Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions about emission-reduction, including : during the urbanization process, it should be paid attention to optimizing population structure & continuing to implement family planning policy, further enlarging the technology innovation in order to reduce carbon emissions intensity for goal-directed and cultivating sustainable consumption pattern.