Unifying Consequence Models for Natural Gas Pipelines in Petrobras Transpetro

摘要

Petrobras Transpetro has been contracting quantitative risk analysis for natural gas pipelines andtheir associated installations as a legal and internal requirement. These studies have been carriedout by a series of consultants that estimate the magnitude of possible damage using differentsoftware available in the market. This fact led to a variety of results based on the premisesadopted by consultants (most of them depending on the risk analyst) and differences regardingthe peculiarities of mathematical models.Petrobras Transpetro team, mainly field personnel, must use these data to carry out preventiveactions inside vulnerable areas, and also to be aware of these ranges in case of a real emergency,thus providing evacuation and escaping actions, as necessary.Based on this scenario, Petrobras Transpetro's Natural Gas Division had invested in purchasing aconsequence-analysis software in order to model the effects of high-consequence loss events asan effort to unify consequence models for natural gas transportation pipelines at PetrobrasTranspetro.As per the above description, this paper aims to present results and benefits of the practical usageof unified consequence modeling information in risk management at Petrobras Transpetro'sNatural Gas Division.