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The Effect of Housing Price Fluctuations on the Macro-economy

机译:住房价格波动对宏观经济的影响

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摘要

Since 2010, the central government of China has introduced a series of tightened policy to limit too fast ascension in housing price. This paper proposes a method to estimate the effect of housing price fluctuations on the macro-economy. In the model, housing price fluctuations not only change housing market situations, but also the productivity of construction and real estate sectors. Stress testing results show that the shock to real estate sector is much stronger than that to construction sector in stress scenarios. There are about 30% between their decreased degrees of value added relative to houses. Regarding 2009 as the base period, when sales price of new common houses decreases 1.65%, 10% and 20%, the GDP growth rate of China will reduce 1.9%, 2.8% and 3.9% respectively.
机译:自2010年以来,中国中央政府推出了一系列收紧的政策,以限制住房价格过快的提升。本文提出了一种方法来估算住房价格波动对宏观经济的影响。在模型中,住房价格波动不仅改变了住房市场情况,而且还改变了建筑和房地产行业的生产力。压力测试结果表明,对房地产部门的冲击比压力情景的建设部门更强大。相对于房屋增加的增值程度下降约30%。关于2009年作为基准期,当新普通房屋的销售价格下降1.65%,10%和20%,中国的GDP增长率分别降低1.9%,2.8%和3.9%。

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