The State Trend Monitoring Model of Emergency Response Process in Unconventional Emergency

摘要

In the process of unconventional emergency management, undoubtedly, grasping the real-time change of event harmfulness and the evolution trend can help decision-making and disposal. A computable event state trend monitoring model ESMM is proposed. Based on the real-time scenario in the process of the outbreak, disposal and recovery of event, the model extracts the information related to event harmfulness and judges the evolutionary trend of event by real-time evaluating the change of harmfulness of event disposal sequence and the difference between the decision-making goals and the actuality. The experiments show ESMM is operable model change and trend monitoring of real-time assessment of event harmfulness.