Modeling and Simulation on Co-evolution of Emergency Agents for Unconventional Emergency Water Disaster

摘要

The Unconventional Emergency Water Disaster (UEWD) is a water disaster that the society has not experienced or experienced few times and lacks the knowledge of its evolution and the experience to deal with it. The emergency system for UEWD is a complex adaptive system with different kinds of agents. In this study, we study the co-evolution mechanism of UEWD agents system. A dynamical model based on improved Logistic model and co-evolution theory is proposed. The impact factors of the emergency ability which mainly include the initial emergency capacity, the growth rate of the emergency ability, the maximun of the emergency ability, the quantity of the emergency agents and the coefficients of the competition and cooperation, is simulated and analyzed. The results show that the emergency ability under the co-stable state has nothing to do with the initial emergency capacity and the growth rate of the emergency ability. However, the time which reaches the co-stable state is positively related to the two factors. The maximun of the emergency ability and the quantity of the emergency agents have impacts on the emergency ability. The degree for the competition and cooperation among the agents is the key factor that affects the co-stable state of UEWD agents. At the end, some conclusions and suggestions are given to improve the emergency ability based on the characters of UEWD and the simulation results.