In order to evaluate the stability of an ancient landslide at ZhangMu town of China-Nepal Highway, a monitoring-based method is put forward. By means of deformation monitoring, including ground deformation, underground displacement and crack measuring, deformation information in a rainy season of this region is got and used as a marginal condition. Based upon the geological conditions, a 3D numerical simulation is set up on the base of a reasonably established finite element model. Using typical crack monitoring data, a GM (1, 1) prediction model based on grey theory prediction method is established, which accords well. Combining stability mechanical analyze, the results are useful references for the slide-slop stability study in downstream regions of BoQu river of the Himalayan southern with complex geological conditions.
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