VERIFICATION OF A REAL-TIME WIND POWER MONITORING AND FORECAST SYSTEM FOR TURKEY

摘要

Due to excessive usage of non-renewable energy sources, getting the maximum yield from the renewables has become so crucial in the last years. Among all renewables, wind is one of the most significant energy sources. In this paper, short term forecasting performance of the RITM wind power monitoring and forecast system of Turkey has been verified from different point of views. The system currently monitors 14 pilot WPPs (with 704.9 MW total capacity) in Turkey in real-time and use wind power measurements, meteorological measurements, numerical weather predictions to forecast power generation in very short and short terms. The system has been tested since June 2012 in real time and the evaluation results of the short term forecasting model of the system demonstrate that (i) the model performs considerably better than the persistence model for all WPPs within the scope of the system in terms of NMAE and NRMSE metrics, (ii) the NBIAS values obtained from the proposed model for older WPPs are lower than that of the newly installed WPPs, mostly due to the higher turbine availability in the older WPPs compared to newer ones.