Long-term Motorcycle Traffic Management: Comparative Analysis of Motorcycle and Car Ownership Trends, Modal Split Changes, and Cross-mode Performances in Asia

摘要

The rapid motorization in Asia is featured by exponential growths in motorcycles. This hascaused accidents, congestion, and environmental pollutions for urban lives. When dealingwith the motorcycle problems, governments and policymakers have different viewpoints andtake contradictory approaches. Some consider motorcycles bad and ban them, some still seepositive aspects of motorcycles and accommodate its use, but many are confusing whichapproach they should take. Lack of motorcycle understanding may lead to such a confusingsituation. This study was aimed to generate new understanding of motorcycle issues andestablish perspectives on managing motorcycle traffic in the long run. To do so, first, acomparative analysis of historical trends of motorcycle and car ownership and their overtimeinteraction was conducted across Asian countries. Second, long-term trends of modal splitsand mode choice in selected Asian cities were examined. Third, motorcycle was comparedwith other modes in terms of capacity, energy efficiency, emissions, and safety. It was foundthat the current high levels of motorcycle ownership and use would remain the long run underdo-nothing scenario. Motorcycle is space efficient but the most dangerous mode despite greatefforts to improve its safety. It is important to develop mass transit systems as soon aspossible to attract motorcycle users and introduce effective regulations to convert motorcyclesto feeder mode and limit their use to short distances. Such a policy framework could help toavoid the negative impacts, particularly safety and urban sprawls, and maximize the spaceefficiency of the motorcycles.