VACANT LAND VALUES: REVIEWING THE SUCCESS OF PHOENIX METRO LIGHT RAIL STATIONS

摘要

The Phoenix METRO light rail line opened December 2008 as the nation’s largest high capacitytransit system starter line. Spanning 24 miles with 28 stations, METRO connected three citieswith radically different land use policies. This article investigates the Phoenix land marketresponse to the 1997 announcement of the station locations as an interrupted time series casestudy. In contrast to the usual hedonic models used for evaluating public investments like lightrail, I compare sales prices per square foot before and after light rail was announced and augmentwith qualitative observations to draw conclusions about the relative development potential ofeach individual transit station. I compare commercial vacant land within a ½ mile of transitstations to vacant land at Phoenix’s most prominent, centrally located, mixed-use intersectionsnot serviced by high capacity transit to further evaluate light rail development potential.Of the three cities served by METRO, Tempe’s station area values improved the most.Only the stations adjoining Tempe decreased in market value. Sales during the 1998-2000assembly period tripled the normal volume. I argue that the effectiveness of public policy, and ofthe light rail investment itself, can be gauged by the market for vacant land before, during andafter light rail system construction. Station area designers and transit planners can look at howthe station areas work together as a whole for more effective station area plans.