Revisiting the Effects of Photovoltaic Module Efficiency on Installed System Cost and Market Adoption

摘要

We conduct bottom-up analysis of how PV module efficiency could influence residential rooftop installed system costs, using models with improved representation of how soft costs and power electronics are affected by efficiency. We show that the amount of system installed cost savings resulting from high efficiency modules depends on whether or not the system is area-constrained, with much larger savings for the area-constrained case. We then estimate the fraction of physically area-constrained rooftops in the United States to be 61%, with variation between 20% to over 80% of rooftops depending on the state. We find that fraction of area-constrained systems could grow to over 88% by 2050 if building and transportation loads are electrified.