PHASED IMPLEMENTATION OF IAEA VERIFICATION IN NUCLEAR WEAPON STATES TO PROMOTE NONPROLIFERATION,ARMS CONTROL AND DISARMAMENT OBJECTIVES

摘要

Progress on nuclear arms control and policies that support disarmament in the long-term are U.S. obligations under theNon-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and top priorities of the Obama Administration. The Administration has taken action tonegotiate and implement various arms control treaties while expanding its support for international verification ofpeaceful uses under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Safeguards. This paper explores the potential benefitsand costs of a long-term phased approach to implementation of existing Voluntary Offer Agreements (VOA) to advanceU.S. and other Nuclear Weapon State’s (NWS) nonproliferation, arms control and disarmament goals. Under this newapproach to VOA implementation, all new enrichment and reprocessing (ENR) capacity constructed in the United Statesand partnering NWS would be placed under active IAEA Safeguards pursuant to existing VOAs. Furthermore, allclosed down and decommissioned ENR capacity would be subject to Complimentary Access (CA) status inspectionsunder related Additional Protocols (AP). In non-NPT States, comparable arrangements could be pursued throughexpanded INFCIRC/66 Safeguards implementation on a facility-by-facility basis. Placing all new ENR capacity underIAEA Safeguards is an essential first step down “the road to global zero” since the end point of that road requiresuniversal peaceful use verification. Along that road, an essential step is a verifiable Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty(FMCT), or a logically equivalent set of multilateral or bilateral agreements. Phased VOA implementation as describedabove could gradually reduce the practical barrier to verification of an FMCT. By focusing on new ENR capacity andverifying status of closed down and decommissioned ENR facilities, a gradually rising on-ramp is built which supportsthe desired outcomes and a reasonable transition period for IAEA budgetary and technical preparations. This phasedapproach enables a sustainable and incremental path to move the United States, other NWS, and non-NPT States intopositions that supports verification of an FMCT and the road to global zero.