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Causal discovery with scale-mixture model for spatiotemporal variance dependencies

机译:时空方差相关性的尺度混合模型因果发现

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In conventional causal discovery, structural equation models (SEM) are directly applied to the observed variables, meaning that the causal effect can be represented as a function of the direct causes themselves. However, in many real world problems, there are significant dependencies in the variances or energies, which indicates that causality may possibly take place at the level of variances or energies. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic causal scale-mixture model with spatiotemporal variance dependencies to represent a specific type of generating mechanism of the observations. In particular, the causal mechanism including contemporaneous and temporal causal relations in variances or energies is represented by a Structural Vector AutoRegressive model (SVAR). We prove the identifiability of this model under the non-Gaussian assumption on the innovation processes. We also propose algorithms to estimate the involved parameters and discover the contemporaneous causal structure. Experiments on synthetic and real world data are conducted to show the applicability of the proposed model and algorithms.
机译:在传统的因果发现中,将结构方程模型(SEM)直接应用于观察到的变量,这意味着因果效应可以表示为直接原因本身的函数。但是,在许多现实问题中,方差或能量存在很大的依赖性,这表明因果关系可能发生在方差或能量的水平上。在本文中,我们提出了一种具有时空方差相关性的概率因果尺度混合模型,以表示一种特定类型的观测结果生成机制。尤其是,由结构矢量自回归模型(SVAR)表示包括方差或能量的当代和时间因果关系的因果机制。我们在创新过程的非高斯假设下证明了该模型的可识别性。我们还提出了算法来估计所涉及的参数并发现同时的因果结构。进行了关于合成数据和现实世界数据的实验,以证明所提出的模型和算法的适用性。

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