SHORT-MID-TERM POWER PREDICTION OF PHOTOVOLTAIC ARRAY BASED ON CLOUDS TRACKING IN REAL TIME

摘要

The research includes the energy efficiency and smart utilization of photovoltaic (PV) panelsdepending on shadows made by clouds which has major influence to the final production of electrical energygenerated by PV array. The maximum produced power that PV source is able to provide has been reached by trackingthe clouds in real time and registering the shadow effect. Production of PV arrays on a cloudy day is directlydependent on the path of the sun, cloud geometry and location of photovoltaic array. Based on the estimated cloudmovements and their geometry and already known the sun trajectory, prediction of the time duration ofovershadowing the photovoltaic array location has been done. Within the research the solution that shows the secureprediction and planning of solar power production as the significance and relevance of this paper has been reached,taking into consideration the influences of shadows of the cloud that affect the photovoltaic efficiency and finalpower production. Hence, within power systems with large scale PV integration the proposed system obtain anoptimal power balancing reserve management and within isolated hybrid systems that includes PV panels; the systemcan be utilized for load management system and optimal usage of diesel aggregate.