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Predictive Complexity and Generalized Entropy Rate of Stationary Ergodic Processes

机译:平稳遍历过程的预测复杂度和广义熵率

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In the online prediction framework, we use generalized entropy to study the loss rate of predictors when outcomes are drawn according to stationary ergodic distributions over the binary alphabet. We show that the notion of generalized entropy of a regular game [11] is well-defined for stationary ergodic distributions. In proving this, we obtain new game-theoretic proofs of some classical information theoretic inequalities. Using Birkhoff's ergodic theorem and convergence properties of conditional distributions, we prove that a generalization of the classical Shannon-McMillan-Breiman theorem holds for a restricted class of regular games, when no computational constraints are imposed on the prediction strategies. If a game is mixable, then there is an optimal aggregating strategy which loses at most an additive constant when compared to any other lower semicomputable strategy. The loss incurred by this algorithm on an infinite sequence of outcomes is called its predictive complexity. We prove that when a restricted regular game has a predictive complexity, the average predictive complexity converges to the generalized entropy of the game almost everywhere with respect to the stationary ergodic distribution.
机译:在在线预测框架中,当根据二进制字母上的平稳遍历分布得出结果时,我们使用广义熵来研究预测变量的损失率。我们证明了规则博弈[11]的广义熵的概念对于平稳的遍历分布是定义明确的。为了证明这一点,我们获得了一些经典信息理论不等式的新的博弈论证明。利用Birkhoff的遍历定理和条件分布的收敛性,我们证明了经典的Shannon-McMillan-Breiman定理的推广适用于一类受限的规则博弈,而对预测策略没有施加任何计算约束。如果一个游戏是可混合的,那么有一个最佳的聚合策略,与任何其他较低的半计算策略相比,该策略最多损失一个加性常数。这种算法在无穷结果序列上造成的损失称为其预测复杂性。我们证明了,当受限的常规游戏具有预测复杂度时,相对于平稳的遍历分布,平均预测复杂度几乎会收敛到游戏的广义熵。

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